Narrative Intelligence · London · est. 2026

Narrative intelligence.
Calibrated probabilities.
A public track record.

VERA analyses breaking events and produces structured intelligence that the surface narrative conceals. Every probability estimate is timestamped before the outcome is known and scored publicly against it.

Latest analysis · Ukraine’s drone campaign on Russian logistics · 23 July 2026

Wildberries: Russia’s businesses under strain from Ukraine’s attacks on retail warehouses

Core reframe · HNS 7.5/10

“The surface narrative frames Ukraine’s drone strikes as a tactical response to a battlefield stalemate, focusing on the economic pain inflicted. The hidden narrative is that this is a deliberate strategy of political attrition designed to systematically undermine the Kremlin’s core social contract with its populace—trading political freedom for stability and prosperity—thereby creating internal political risks for Vladimir Putin that are more significant than the direct economic damage.”

70% likely · war still active at 12 months Peer review 8.8/10 BBC adversarial peer review

Read the full analysis →

Proof of mechanism · Iran ceasefire · 7–8 April 2026

22:11 UTC · 7 April 2026

VERA: performative statecraft

Analysis complete. Every outlet was reporting the potential for catastrophic escalation. VERA's conclusion: the rhetoric is primarily performative statecraft, with constraints that could pave the way for a diplomatic stand down. 75% the narrative holds — not a catastrophic escalation of war.

~22:32 UTC · ~21 minutes later

Ceasefire announced

Trump announces ceasefire on Truth Social — the first public announcement anywhere. Pakistan mediated. Both sides claimed victory. Oil reversed 9%. Every confirmation signal resolved as specified.

From the analysis · 22:11 UTC · verbatim

"The dominant thesis is that extreme rhetoric makes continued escalation almost certain. The inversion is that this rhetoric is a deliberate madman theory bluff by both sides to force secret back-channel negotiations, leading to a surprise de-escalation agreement within days."

21 min

Between timestamped analysis and ceasefire announcement No outlet had reported ceasefire possibility at 22:11 UTC. The Axios report on Pakistani mediation momentum published simultaneously with Trump's announcement — not before it.

File: 103872a454df872b_20260407_221119.json · Linux kernel Birth: 2026-04-07 22:11:19.114211578 UTC · Unmodifiable after creation

Read the full case study — every signal, every confirmation, what we got wrong →

What the pipeline produces

Hidden narrative synthesis

The drivers, incentives, and market mechanisms the article's framing suppresses. On the Iran article: both leaders performing for domestic audiences, not expressing genuine escalatory intent.

Bayesian probability derivation

A prior from historical reference classes. Evidence factors with direction and magnitude. A posterior probability. Every step visible. Nothing asserted without showing how it was derived.

Scenario tree

Four scenarios with probabilities, timeframes, falsifiable confirmation signals, invalidation criteria, and cascade effects. Specified before the outcome. Scored after.

Constraint network

Which actors constrain which others, at what strength, through what mechanism. On Iran: marine insurance markets as the real-time escalation cost arbiter — not the diplomats.

Forward simulation

First mover identified. Cascade sequence modelled. Watchlist signals specified with sources and timeframes. Invalidation criteria that tell you when the analysis is wrong.

Adversarial peer review

Before publication, a separate model reviews the analysis for arithmetic errors, source misattribution, and logical contradictions. The score and the failures are published alongside the analysis.

Published in public

VERA publishes free. The analysis — the hidden narrative synthesis, the Bayesian derivation, the scenario tree, the constraint network — is public in the archive. The track record is public, and deliberately score-free until the first cohort resolves in August 2026.

VERA is a software platform. Every analysis is generated by the pipeline — there are no human analysts, no engagements, no commissioned reports. For institutions, the same engine is available as a product: structured API access, the platform running against your own article corpus, and the full stakeholder decision surfaces. Early access: contact us.

We do not publish financial advice. The intelligence is ours. The decision is yours.

Read the case study → Institutional enquiries About VERA →

Narrative intelligence. Calibrated probabilities. A public track record.

Wildberries: Russia’s businesses under strain from Ukraine’s attacks on retail warehouses

Narrative intelligence.
Calibrated probabilities.
A public track record.